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How much will the Belarusian economy lose from the Belaruskali strike?

How much will the Belarusian economy lose from the Belaruskali strike?

Strikes in Belarus against unfair elections can lead to serious consequences for the country. So, for example, according to Scotiabank’s calculations, the laying off of works on Belaruskali for two weeks may reduce the world production of potash salt by 3.5% based on the results of one quarter.

The plant provides almost a fifth of the world’s potash supplies, so the shutdown could lead to price volatility for products that use potash. Typically, manufacturers and buyers enter into long-term contracts, so at the moment it is difficult to understand what losses the shutdown will bring. In addition, for each of these documents, however, one thing is already certain: the value of the shares of the company’s competitors began to grow. For example, the Canadian Nutrien went up 7%, and the Israeli ICL Ltd. by 5%.

Some experts nevertheless admit that the effect of the events in Belarus won’t be serious, as it has been oversaturated in recent years. The supply level was constantly growing in anticipation of an increase in demand, but this didn’t happen.

First of all, the economy of the state itself will lose from the strike, since Belaruskali is a national company. It is this company that is the main source of foreign budget revenues. The enterprise accounts for 8.5% of the country’s export.

Belaruskali workers started strikes last week, they warned in advance about their wish to boyсott work, and on Tuesday the enterprise stopped working. At the same time, Andrei Rybak, the chairman of the Belkhimprofsoyuz, denied the fact of the strike in a conversation with RBC.

The workers also set their own demands on leadership and government. Among them are the annulment of the presidential elections, the resignation of Alexander Lukashenko, as well as the release of all political prisoners. The general director of the enterprise, Ivan Golovaty, asked the workers not to stop production and promised to consider their complaints.

However Belaruskali workers report the threats of dismissal for participating in the strike.

Workers’ protests at Belarusian factories began last week due to lack of confidence in the officially announced data on the voting results. According to official data, 80% of citizens voted for Alexander Lukashenko.


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